The Future of Climate: Oceans in an Era of Climate Change
Here’s a sobering statistic: The amount of excess heat absorbed by oceans in the last 50 years is twenty times greater than all of the energy produced by every industry in every country over the same period.
Robert Dunbar, W. M. Keck Professor of Earth Sciences at Stanford University, impressed this point upon the over 100 attendees from around the world during the OIST Foundation’s webinar “The Future of Oceans in an Era of Climate Change,” held on December 9, 2020. This was the second of three webinars in the Future of Climate series funded by a generous grant from the Japan Foundation Center for Global Partnership. The webinars spotlight some of the most important global issues of deep concern to the United States and Japan: climate change, mitigating its impact, and environmental conservation.
These topics, as they relate to oceans in particular, were the focus of a panel discussion featuring Dunbar, Professor Timothy Ravasi from Okinawa Institute of Science and Technology (OIST), and Dr. Alex Wegmann from The Nature Conservancy. Dr. Lisa Fujise, a marine biologist who is now the program manager for Venture Café Tokyo, moderated the discussion. Over the course of the evening, the webinar focused on the impact that climate change is having on oceans and marine life, and how those impacts affect the planet.
For example, there are numerous consequences that result from the dramatic amount of heat absorbed by oceans. First, increased heating affects storms and storm intensity, making them wetter, more frequent, and more severe. Second, higher water temperatures cause sea ice to melt and sea levels to rise — and the rate of that rise is accelerating. Third, land-based ice (such as the massive ice sheets found in Greenland and Antarctica) is becoming more unstable as it melts. “The amount of unstable ice in these big ice sheets…will cause 5–7 meters of sea level rise,” Dunbar says. “The only question is, does this take 200 years, 500 years, or 1,000 years? Regardless, it will change the world.”
Ravasi, who recently established the Marine Climate Change Unit at OIST, spoke about the impact of ocean warming and acidification on coral reefs. Higher temperatures and increased carbon dioxide can result in coral bleaching, typically on a massive scale. The loss of coral reefs clearly has a negative effect not just on the coral itself but on the sea life that depends on reefs for food and protection. The consequences go even further, however, because people depend on reefs ecosystems, too. Japan is particularly vulnerable because the economy has a high dependence on tourism — people visiting to see the reefs — and on commercial fishing. These account for billions of dollars each year in economic activity.
However, higher temperatures and acidification don’t always spell disaster for marine life. Different species of fish and coral react differently. Ravasi and his students are studying those differences at the genomic level by recreating ocean conditions in the lab. By better understanding how fish have adapted to challenging conditions, they can better predict what will happen in the future. He noted, however, that there are numerous secondary factors affecting marine life as well. For example, he says, “Agriculture is another problem Okinawa is facing with all of the farming very close to the shore,” citing polluted runoff into the ocean.
Wegmann’s research is more focused on land-based connectivity to oceans. As panelists in the first webinar in the Future of Climate series noted, islands provide an outsized opportunity to study biodiversity. They are also excellent for the science community to test solutions to global environmental problems.
Palmyra Atoll, a Pacific coral atoll, is the subject of Wegmann’s research and conservation efforts at The Nature Conservancy. Palmyra demonstrates how land-based flora and fauna impacts the health of the surrounding ocean. On Palmyra Atoll, seabirds eat nitrogen- and phosphorus-rich squid and plants. Those nutrients are excreted in the birds’ guano. Ocean waves then distribute that guano and its nutrients into the water. The nutrients in the water increase plankton, which draws more fish that eat plankton and more fish that eat those fish.
This healthy ecosystem was disrupted during World War II when non-native rats were accidentally introduced to the island. The rats preyed upon the seabirds, and the ocean life suffered as a result. A massive effort to eradicate the rats in 2012 helped to restore the balance, and efforts continue to introduce greater numbers of native trees (replacing coconut palms) that seabirds prefer to nest in. Wegmann says of the effort, “We are realigning a rainforest to save a coral reef. Ecosystems are inherently adaptive, and, as we are learning, responsive to conservation actions. It is not too late to work with nature to engineer a more sustainable future for oceans, islands, and the planet.”
Connectivity between land and water can serve as a model (and a metaphor) for connectivity among society, industry, and academia. In Okinawa, those connections are being formed thanks to OIST which collaborates with prefectural fish farms to reduce dependence on ocean fish. “We need to identify the win-win solutions that allow industry to move forward while significantly reducing impacts,” Wegmann says.
Fujise then turned the conversation to how individuals can play a role. The three panelists had very specific, achievable goals that every person can do to help oceans. Ravasi recommends less frequent automobile use to reduce CO2 emissions. He adds, “Plastic is becoming a big problem for oceans, so try to use less plastic.” Dunbar encourages everyone to vote locally: “If recycling isn’t good where you live, push for it.” Wegmann says, “There are many opportunities to stay engaged without actually being in the ocean,” and encourages individuals to seek those out to stay current on topics related to ocean conservation.
The OIST Foundation is grateful to Venture Cafe Tokyo for co-sponsoring this event and to the Japan Foundation for funding the webinar series and strategic report that will follow. The report will outline how the OIST Foundation can play a central role in bringing together American and Japanese leaders on climate change topics in order to expand partnerships and help policy makers by sharing informed scientific insights with them.
